Prediction of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

The chart presents a prediction of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance using the University of Michigan Social Media Job Loss Index. The prediction is based on a factor analysis of social media messages mentioning job loss and related outcomes. See Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows for details.

This research is a collaboration of University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, Department of Economics, and Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and Stanford University's Department of Computer Science. The Economic Indicators from Social Media project is part of the Michigan Node of the NSF-Census Research Data Network (NSF SES 1131500). You can find relevant academic papers about this work here.

About this website: The computational and data infrastructure that powers this website is described here.

For more information:
Matthew Shapiro, shapiro at umich.edu, (734) 764-5419 (Economics)
Michael Cafarella, michjc at umich.edu, (734) 764-9418 (Computer Science)

Update (June, 2015)

We are currently in the process of revisiting our original model, which began to deviate in its estimates around mid-2014. We will be updating this site soon with our new model, along with details on our new model.

If you would like to view the original model's results, click here.

Sources: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (seasonally adjusted), U.S. Department of Labor; Prediction, University of Michigan Social Media Job Loss Index.

Latest Estimate download estimates

Date Initial Claims (Preliminary) Initial Claims (Revised) Prediction
April 30, 2016 274 274 329

Previous Estimates

Date Initial Claims (Preliminary) Initial Claims (Revised) Prediction
April 23, 2016 257 257 330
April 16, 2016 247 248 330
April 9, 2016 253 253 330
April 2, 2016 267 266 331

Last updated: May 26, 2016, 12:00 EDT